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From Left to Far Right: The Changing Electoral Impact of Social Insecurity in France (2012-2015)

Abstract : This paper analyses the electoral impact of social insecurity in France between the 2012 presidential election and the 2015 regional elections, the last before the 2017 presidential race. Data comes from two national post electoral surveys, and social insecurity is measured by a multidimensional continuous indicator of “precariousness”, combining economic hardship and social isolation. The analysis shows that in both elections, the major effect of precariousness was to decrease political interest and electoral turnout. And among those who went to the polls, in both elections it decreased support for the mainstream right parties. But in 2012 this worked to the advantage of the socialist left, while in 2015 it was the opposite. The higher the level of precariousness, the higher was support for the far right party, the Front national, most spectacular being the turnover precariousness operated among blue collar workers. The impact of social insecurity is clearly shaped by the context and the supply-side of politics; it can incline to either side of the political spectrum.
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https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02186296
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Submitted on : Wednesday, July 17, 2019 - 11:43:07 AM
Last modification on : Friday, July 2, 2021 - 1:59:53 PM

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Nonna Mayer. From Left to Far Right: The Changing Electoral Impact of Social Insecurity in France (2012-2015). Peace Studies, 2017, 25 (1), pp.155 - 186. ⟨hal-02186296⟩

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