Uncertainty, Decision Science, and Policy Making: A Manifesto for a Research Agenda

David Tucket (1) , Antoine Mandel (2, 3) , Diana Mangalagiu (4) , Allen Abramson (1) , Jochen Hinkel , Konstantinos Katsikopoulos , Alan Kirman (5) , Thierry Malleret , Igor Mozetic (6) , Paul Ormerod (1) , Robert Elliot Smith (1) , Tommaso Venturini (7) , Angela Wilkinson (8)

1 UCL - University College of London [London]
2 PSE - Paris School of Economics
3 CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
4 RMS - Reims Management School
5 GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille
6 IJS - Jozef Stefan Institute [Ljubljana]
7 médialab - médialab (Sciences Po)
8 OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

The financial crisis of 2008 was unforeseen partly because the academic theories that underpin policy making do not sufficiently account for uncertainty and complexity or learned and evolved human capabilities for managing them. Mainstream theories of decision making tend to be strongly normative and based on wishfully unrealistic “idealized” modeling. In order to develop theories of actual decision making under uncertainty, we need new methodologies that account for how human (sentient) actors often manage uncertain situations “well enough.” Some possibly helpful methodologies, drawing on digital science, focus on the role of emotions in determining people’s choices; others examine how people construct narratives that enable them to act; still others combine qualitative with quantitative data.

Mots clés: Decision Science; Uncertainty; Policy-making

Domaines: Science politique; Economies et finances; Sociologie

David Tucket, Antoine Mandel, Diana Mangalagiu, Allen Abramson, Jochen Hinkel, et al.. Uncertainty, Decision Science, and Policy Making: A Manifesto for a Research Agenda. Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society, 2015, 27 (2), pp.213 - 242. ⟨10.1080/08913811.2015.1037078⟩. ⟨hal-02057279⟩