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L'interdépendance des économies en change flexible : les apports d'une maquette dynamique

Eric Bleuze
Abstract : Iterdependence of economies under flexible exchange rates : the contributions of dynamic model This paper present a dynamic model in order to analyse interdependence between two identical countries under flexible exchange rates. The dynamic process is depending on slow adjustment of prices to their desired level (which is positively related to real interest rate) combined with the influence of current account on foreign exchange markets. On the short run, the exchange rate is determined by financial factors ; on the long run by current account. So the model gives a classical long term equilibrium reached on a keynesian trajectory. Following a disturbance, the new equilibrium is obtained slowly with complex trajectories, which are difficult to forecast. This leads us to be skeptic concerning the realism of the rational expectations hypothesis. Flexible exchange rates are unable to isolate each country from the schocks occurred in the other. More precisely, both countries suffer from a degradation of supply conditions in one of them. A demand expansion in one country provokes a temporary production rise, followed by a long depression especially in the initiating country, whose exchange rate is progressively depreciated.
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  • HAL Id : hal-01304325, version 1
  • SCIENCESPO : 2441/5386



Eric Bleuze. L'interdépendance des économies en change flexible : les apports d'une maquette dynamique. Revue Economique, Presses de Sciences Po, 1988, 39 (5), pp.999 - 103. ⟨hal-01304325⟩



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