Scenario for Global Aging - An Investigation with the INGENUE 2 World Model

Michel Aglietta (1) , Vladimir Borgy (2) , Jean Chateau (3) , Michel Juillard , Jacques Le Cacheux (4) , Gilles Le Garrec (4) , Vincent Touzé (4)

1 CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales
2 Centre de recherche de la Banque de France
3 UP1 UFR27 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UFR Mathématiques & Informatique
4 OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po)

This paper explores the consequences of pension reforms in Western Europe in a world economy setting. Whereas various economic and social consequences of ageing have been investigated in OECD countries, very few analyses have explicitly taken the worldwide aspect of the problem into account. In order to do so, we rely on the new version of the INGENUE model. This applied, international, overlapping-generations, general-equilibrium model of the world economy has been built noticeably to analyze the international capital flows and growth dynamics induced by differential ageing of the various regions of the world. After a description of the major features of the baseline scenario of the model for the world economy over the next 50 years, we explore the domestic and international macroeconomic consequences of two scenarios of pension reforms in Western Europe as well as their intergenerational distributional effects. We compare these scenarios with a specific migration scenario, which is allowed by the new features of the INGENUE 2 model.

Domaines: Economies et finances

Michel Aglietta, Vladimir Borgy, Jean Chateau, Michel Juillard, Jacques Le Cacheux, et al.. Scenario for Global Aging - An Investigation with the INGENUE 2 World Model. [Research Report] unknown. 2005. ⟨hal-01072181⟩