Of ants and voters: maximum entropy prediction and agent based models with recruitment

Sylvain Barde (1)

1 OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po)

Maximum entropy predictions are made for the Kirman ant model as well as the Abrams-Strogatz model of language competition, also known as the voter model. In both cases the maximum entropy methodology provides good predictions of the limiting distribution of states, as was already the case for the Schelling model of segregation. An additional contribution, the analysis of the models reveals the key role played by relative entropy and the model in controlling the time horizon of the prediction.

Keywords: information entropy; agent based models; voters models

Domains: Economics and Finance

Sylvain Barde. Of ants and voters: maximum entropy prediction and agent based models with recruitment. Revue de l'OFCE, 2012, 147-175, pp.1-29. ⟨10.3917/reof.124.0147⟩. ⟨hal-01071853⟩