. Au-cours-du-temps, en particulier avec le niveau des taux d'intérêt ou la structure par âge de la population. Aussi, les gouvernements ne peuvent-ils garantir que des règles de politique budgétaire

A. A. Références-bibliographiques, 2001 : « Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in the EU-15, ISEG ? Departamento de Economia Working Paper 7, 2001.

A. A. , R. Perotti, and J. Tavares, The political economy of fiscal adjustments, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, issue.1, pp.197-248, 1998.

B. A. Et and F. Carlucci, An aggregate model for the European Union, Economic modelling, pp.623-649, 2003.

B. R. , J. P. Byrne, and K. Dury, « The implications of diversity in consumption behaviour for the choice of monetary rules in Europe, Economic Modelling, vol.20, issue.2, pp.275-299, 2003.

B. F. Et and M. B. Devereux, « The 'expansionary fiscal contraction hypothesis' : A neo-Keynesian analysis », Oxford Economic Papers, pp.249-264, 1995.

B. F. Et and M. B. Devereux, « Expansionary fiscal contraction : A theoretical exploration, Journal of Macroeconomics, vol.25, issue.1, pp.1-23, 2003.

J. Creel, B. Ducoudré, C. Mathieu, H. Sterdyniak, B. G. Et et al., 1993 : « Trigger points and budget cuts : Explaining the effects of fiscal austerity, The American Economic Review, vol.83, pp.11-26

B. O. Et and R. Perotti, An empirical characterization of the dynamic effects of changes in government spending and taxes on output, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, pp.1329-1368, 2002.

B. J. Et and K. Whelan, The Irish expansionary fiscal contraction : A tale from one small European economy », Economic Modelling, pp.175-201, 1997.

B. F. , B. Henry, and G. Williams, « Long-term real interest rates : Evidence on the global capital market, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol.15, issue.2, pp.128-142, 1999.

C. J. Et and N. G. Mankiw, « Consumption, income, and interest rates : Reinterpreting the time series evidence, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, pp.185-216, 1989.

C. J. Et and N. G. Mankiw, « Permanent income, current income, and consumption », Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol.8, issue.3, pp.265-279, 1990.

C. G. Et and G. Williams, Long-term nominal interest rates and domestic fundamentals, Review of Financial Economics, vol.11, pp.119-130, 2002.

C. Et and L. Stemitsiotis, Budget deficit and interest rates : Is there a link ? International evidence, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol.57, issue.4, pp.425-449, 1995.

C. P. , E. Dubois, S. Mahfouz, and J. Pisani-ferry, « The cost of fiscal retrenchment revisited : How strong is the evidence ?, 1996.

C. J. , T. Latreille, J. Le, and . Cacheux, Le Pacte de stabilité et les politiques budgétaires dans l'Union européenne », Revue de l'OFCE, Hors série « La mondialisation et l'Europe, pp.245-297, 2002.

C. J. Et and H. Sterdyniak, « Les déficits publics en Europe : causes, conséquences ou remèdes à la crise ? », Revue de l'OFCE, n° 54, pp.57-100, 1995.

D. C. Et and M. Marcellino, A macroeconometric model for the Euro economy », Halle Institute for Economic Research Discussion Papers, n° 181, 2003.

J. Creel, B. Ducoudré, C. Mathieu, H. Sterdyniak, and E. P. , 1987 : « Do budget deficits raise nominal interest rates ? Evidence from six countries, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.20, issue.2, pp.281-300

F. G. , J. Henry, and R. Mestre, « An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area, 2001.

F. A. Et and I. Mihov, « The effects of fiscal policy on consumption and employment : Theory and evidence, CEPR Discussion Paper Series, 2001.

F. A. Et and I. Mihov, The case for restricting fiscal policy discretion, n° 475, novembre, pp.1419-1447, 2003.

F. R. Et and D. Laxton, « World public debt and real interest rates, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol.15, issue.2, pp.77-93, 1999.

G. J. , J. D. López-salido, and J. Vallés, Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption, ECB Working Paper Series, n° 339, 2004.

G. F. , T. Jappelli, and M. Pagano, « Searching for nonlinear effects of fiscal policy : Evidence from industrial and developing countries, European Economic Review, vol.44, pp.1259-1289, 2000.

G. F. Et and M. Pagano, « Can severe fiscal contractions be expansionary ? Tales of two small European countries, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, pp.75-111, 1990.

G. F. Et and M. Pagano, 1996 : « Non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policy changes : International evidence and the Swedish experience, Swedish Economic Policy Review, vol.3, pp.67-103

G. G. , A. Turrini, J. In-'t, and . Veld, « Can fiscal consolidations be expansionary in the EU ? Ex-post evidence and ex-ante analysis, 2003.

H. R. , M. Kell, and S. Mahfouz, The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity: A Review of the Literature, IMF Working Paper WP/02, 2002.
DOI : 10.5089/9781451874716.001

L. P. Et and R. Perotti, « The importance of composition of fiscal policy : Evidence from different exchange rate regimes, Journal of Public Economics, vol.87, pp.9-10, 2003.

M. C. Et and R. F. Wescott, An empirical analysis of fiscal adjustments, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, vol.43, pp.725-753, 1996.

M. C. Et and H. Sterdyniak, Réformer le Pacte de Stabilité : l'état du débat », Revue de l'OFCE, n° 84, janvier, pp.145-179, 2003.

M. S. Et and F. S. Russek, « Do federal deficits affect interest rates ? Evidence from three econometric methods, Journal of Macroeconomics, vol.18, pp.403-428, 1996.

M. F. , J. Fitoussi, B. Moro, D. Snower, R. Solow et al., An economists' manifesto on unemployment in the European Union, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, pp.327-361, 1998.

T. V. Et and N. N. Chalk, Impact of large public debt on growth in the EU : A discussion of potential channels », European Economy Reports and Studies, pp.23-43, 2000.

A. B. Van, H. Et, and . Garretsen, « Keynesian, non-Keynesian or no effects of fiscal policy changes ? The EMU case », Journal of Macroeconomics, vol.25, pp.213-240, 2003.