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Les conflits post bipolaires : dynamiques et caractéristiques

Abstract : This issue continues the discussion begun by the first issue, concerning "the prolongation of conflicts", at a more structural level. How will armed conflicts develop in the future ? What is happening now that the East-West confrontation and bipolarity have disappeared ? The logic of the actors, the reasons for prolongation induced by the socialisation of war and the difficulties for armed people to accept returning to a civilian way of life are anlaysed, as well as the new context after bipolarity. The development of recent conflicts can be analysed via three dynamic movements : globalisation, fragmentation, transnationalisation. Globalisation and fragmentation are analysed as two opposite dynamics. Some analysts only see globalisation and speak of unipolarity, others only see fragmentation and speak of " chaos ", " southern threat ", or " clash of civilisations ". New theories propose combining globalisation and fragmentation in order to understand the " turbulences " of the present World, but they lack a clear distinction between globalisation, fragmentation and transnationalisation. This last dynamic, is however, not the result of the first two but follows its own logic.
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Didier Bigo. Les conflits post bipolaires : dynamiques et caractéristiques. Cultures & conflits, L'Harmattan, 1993, pp.3-14. ⟨10.4000/conflits.517⟩. ⟨hal-01009743⟩

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