Has the Golden Rule of Public Finance Made a difference in the UK

Jérôme Creel (1) , Paola Veroni (1) , Francesco Saraceno (1)

1 OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po)

This paper uses the SVAR methodology to investigate the effects of public investment on growth, and more specifically, the effects of the introduction of a golden rule of public finance. We extend the existing literature by estimating a model of the British economy that takes into account long run factors such as public debt accumulation. We find that in such a long run framework, public investment has a significant and permanently positive effect on GDP growth; this result runs counter to the most recent literature on the topic that was limited to a short run specification. We further find, by comparing different subsamples, that the introduction of the golden rule in 1997 strengthened the positive effect of public investment.

Mots clés: fiscal policy; golden rule of public finance; Structural VAR; Public Investment; UK Economy

Domaines: Economies et finances

Jérôme Creel, Paola Veroni, Francesco Saraceno. Has the Golden Rule of Public Finance Made a difference in the UK. 2007. ⟨hal-00972843⟩